Bitcoin on course for first back-to-back losing years, Bitcoin Magazine says

Two red yearly candles

Bitcoin is heading for its first pair of consecutive losing calendar years, according to Bitcoin Magazine, which examined the asset's yearly price candles in a video published on 12 November 2026. The publication said 2025 closed down about 6% and that 2026 is down about 16% with seven weeks of the year remaining.

For 2026 to finish higher than it started, Bitcoin would have to climb back above $87,500, which Bitcoin Magazine described as roughly an 18% rally from the level at the time of the video. The figures are the publication's own reading of yearly candles, a charting convention in which each candle shows the opening and closing price for a calendar year.

The halving-year pattern

Bitcoin Magazine said 2025 was the first losing year that directly followed a halving, the roughly four-yearly event at which the reward paid to miners is cut. In earlier cycles, the year after a halving was positive, the publication said.

Sean Hagan, presenting the chart, argued that the timeline is full of what he called panic hands treating two red candles as proof that Bitcoin is struggling. He said he wanted to look at the actual data, and that the numbers may tell a different story. The video did not set out a price forecast.

What the video attributes the move to

According to the chapter list for the video, Bitcoin Magazine attributes part of the cycle's shape to exchange-traded funds, saying the ETFs pulled the whole rally forward. It also contrasts 2021, which it says had a cushion, with 2025, which it says did not.

The publication further argues that the second year of the cycle is not the difference and that the first year is. It describes the current bear market as shorter and shallower than previous ones. These are the publication's characterisations; the video does not give the underlying figures for the comparison in the material available.

Open questions

Whether 2026 ends red depends on the remaining seven weeks, and Bitcoin Magazine's $87,500 threshold is a level it calculated, not a target it set. The publication did not say in the material available what would drive a move to that level, and it did not address what a second losing year would mean beyond the chart pattern.