Bitwise CIO Hougan keeps $1.6M Bitcoin target despite 16% drop

The call

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset manager Bitwise, said Bitcoin remains in the early stage of a bull market and that he expects a rally toward the end of the year. His long-term price target, and Bitwise's, stays at $1.6 million per BTC, according to an interview recorded this week and reported by Blocktrainer on 12 November 2026.

Hougan said he is somewhat more pessimistic about the coming weeks. He pointed to uncertainty over how the Democrats will approach crypto now that they control Congress. He added that he still expects a multi-year bull market built on Bitcoin, stablecoins and tokenisation.

What changed in the price

Bitcoin has fallen more than 16% since its interim high on 21 September 2026 and now trades below its 50-week moving average, a level traders watch as a trend signal. Hougan said the low of $57,717, reached on 1 July, will not be undercut again.

He argued that Bitcoin held up despite the Binance hack, high US inflation data and the Democratic win in the midterm elections. In his view, bad news no longer moves the price in the early phase of a bull market, and the market is roughly at that point.

The AI question

Hougan sketched three scenarios for the AI industry. In a world of abundant AI-driven growth, he said scarce assets such as Bitcoin would do well. If the Democrats stopped AI expansion, he expects Congress to step in with stimulus, which he also sees as positive for Bitcoin.

In a neutral scenario where AI keeps growing but is not decisive, he said Bitcoin's case would rest on institutional adoption. The only scenario in which he sees Bitcoin under pressure is a severe recession without a government response, which he called unlikely and which could push the price below the June low.

Hougan did not address how far the AI trade draws capital that might otherwise go to Bitcoin. Some analysts have linked the recent weakness to the expected initial public offering of Anthropic next week, the report said.

Bitwise published a new 10-year Bitcoin forecast at the end of October. The report does not give the full base-case figure.