Bitcoin options price a 31% chance of a Christmas close below $70,000

Options market reprices the downside

The implied probability that bitcoin ends the year below $70,000 at Christmas expiry rose to 31% from 15% a week earlier, according to data from the options platform Derive. The same figures put the chance of a close above $80,000 at 26%, down from 53%.

Derive founder and CEO Nick Forster said the options market had clearly increased its pricing of downside risk. The 31% figure is an implied probability calculated from option prices on one platform, not a forecast of what will happen.

Trading activity moved with the pricing. Derive recorded $418 million of bitcoin options volume last week, 37% more than the week before, and the share of premium paid for put options, which pay off when the price falls, rose to 55% from 36%. The article notes that buying puts does not necessarily mean a trader is bearish: holders of bitcoin or other long positions may be hedging them.

Perpetual futures near two-year highs

K33 said in research published on 9 November that bitcoin perpetual futures open interest stood at about 353,000 BTC, up 12% over 30 days, while the price fell about 10% in the same period. Perpetual futures are contracts without an expiry date, and open interest is the value of contracts still outstanding.

Research head Vetle Lunde said only about 1.2% of trading days in the past two years had seen higher open interest. "If the price breaks lower, it could trigger a wave of long liquidations; if it recovers, shorts may be forced to cover," he said, adding that the market was set up for a squeeze in either direction.

CoinGlass data for the evening of 12 November put total bitcoin futures open interest at about $50.91 billion, down about 3.25% in 24 hours, with about $63.03 million liquidated in the same period. The two measures differ: K33 counts coins in specific perpetual contracts, while CoinGlass reports a broader dollar notional figure.

ETF outflows and the price

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $201 million, $95 million and $299.8 million on 9, 10 and 11 November, according to Farside Investors, a total of about $596 million over the three sessions. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for about $269.7 million of the 11 November outflow.

CoinGlass put bitcoin at about $73,269 on the evening of 12 November, down about 0.9% in 24 hours, within a range of $73,221 to $74,771. That left it about 4.5% above $70,000 and about 41.9% below the record high of about $126,198 reached in October 2025. The crypto fear and greed index stood at 29, in fear territory.

Tech stocks as the other variable

K33 put the 30-day correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq at about 0.75, around the 99th percentile since 2020. The firm reviewed 16 past cases in which the Nasdaq rebounded clearly from a correction: when the equity rebound held, bitcoin tended to follow, and when it failed, bitcoin tended to fall further. K33 said the sample was small and could not predict the next move.

The article lists three signals to watch: whether the implied probability of a drop keeps rising, how perpetual futures open interest and funding rates develop, and whether U.S. spot ETFs return to sustained net inflows. It also states that a rise in implied probability does not mean the price must fall.